• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from February to September 2026 in conflict-affected areas of the center and north of the country due to very high food prices and significant decreases in income. A deterioration to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected starting in April 2026 in Ménaka due to the sharp deterioration of livelihoods, large consumption gaps, and the high number of displaced persons. The increase in attacks by armed groups will contribute to generating atypical population displacements and degraded livelihoods.
  • The number of people in need will be between 2 and 2.49 million people according to FEWS NET estimates, peaking between August and September. The seasonal increase in the number of people in need will be above average due to the combination of security, fuel, and electricity crises.
  • Despite a progressive improvement in the availability of fuel in Bamako and in some urban centers of the country, access difficulties persist in the regions of Ségou, Mopti, Sikasso, Koulikoro, Dioila, Bandiagara, San, and Douentza, where speculation continues. The continuation of Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) attacks on the main corridors and the rationing policy being considered by the government do not favor a rapid recovery; this will continue to impact the country's economy including the increasingly motorized agricultural production.
  • Despite the seasonal increase in staple food prices, prices will remain near to below the five-year average in agricultural areas and near to above average in insecure areas of the center and north of the country, where disruptions or even breaks in supply linked to insecurity are sometimes observed. In these areas, household access to food will be reduced due to the overall decrease in income in the face of high food prices.

Putting it in context

Retail decisions rarely happen all at once. What looks like a sudden change of direction is usually the visible end of months of testing, costing and quiet negotiation behind the scenes.

The bottom line

None of this settles the wider question. It does make one thing harder to ignore: the pressure in the food industry has shifted, and others will have to respond to it.